The document by a senior US economist and former Houblon-Norman Fellow at the Bank of England is published on the website of the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation (CSFI), which runs around 100 roundtable events a year involving financial services insiders from the UK and beyond.

The document forecasts that in 2018, US stock prices are likely to plummet by as much as “forty to fifty percent” — compared to the less than five percent plunge in early February. The document was published weeks before the recent stock market volatility.

Related reporting by the author:

Brace for the oil, food and financial crash of 2018

Inside the new economic science of capitalism’s slow-burn energy collapse

Financial insiders contemplate “imminent” 2018 US stock market crash of up to “50%”